UPDATE: The PSD have indeed claimed fraud.
Firstly, in classic Blackadder style, while we do not like to blow our own trumpet, we do like to let people know we have a trumpet.
So, just to remind you all, on Friday, we wrote the following:
Turnout over 53 per cent: Basescu squeaks it. Anything less, Geoana wins.
Turnout was 58 per cent, Basescu squeaked it, by around 60,000 votes. This after Mircea Geoana had gone to bed last night thinking he had won. The poor bastard.
Alas, the exit polls which put him ahead did not take into account the 160,000+ Romanians who voted abroad; three out of four voted for Basescu. Their votes were enough to overturn the result in Basescu’s favour.
So it was the diaspora wot won it, right?
Wrong.
Basescu did not win. That is the key statement we need to remember. Geoana lost. Badly.
He threw away certain victory on Wednesday night when he went to see Sorin Ovidu Vantu, convicted fraudster and the owner of one of Romania’s largest media conglomerates, Realitatea Catavencu, which owns, amongst other things, television news channel Realititea TV.
Crucial too were the votes of young Romanians, the vast majority of whom went for Basescu. Why? Because they thought they were voting for an anti-communist in some kind of bizarre, bloodless re-run of the Romanian revolution of 1989.
Look at what’s being said by these twenty-somethings (who have no real recollection of what communism was actually like) on Twitter and Facebook: Jos Comunismul! It’s as though Romania had been ruled by communists these past five years, not by the so-called anti-communist who has just been elected for a second term.
So what happens now?
First, Geoana and the PSD look set to challenge the official result. Not being constitutional experts we find it difficult to see exactly how they can: there was clearly no real major fraud. The best they can hope for is a recount.
Sooner or later though Basescu will get his second term. And then the fun starts.
Romania currently has no government. Basescu’s party has no parliamentary majority. If he was a decent chap he would run along to the PNL, apologise for everything and promise to behave in exchange for their support in swearing-in a new government.
He will not.
It is highly likely that the PNL would tell him to bugger off, anyway.
Instead expect a general election, perhaps even before the end of the year (Basescu will want to make the best of the goodwill he now has from the half of the country that did not vote against him).
Then expect the whole process to start again.
Chaos will reign in Romania for a lot more than 40 days and 40 nights. We blame Ceausescu.
{ 25 comments… read them below or add one }
Valentin – it’s an interesting analysis, but somewhat flawed. I have no idea what drove Transylvanian Romanians to vote for Basescu, but under your theory, the Hungarians should have voted en masse for Geoana, and pretty much everyone I’ve spoken to most certainly did not. The idea of Johannis as PM was very appealing of course, but since the PSD has been peddling a Romanian nationalist line for some time now (this election notwithstanding), the sense here in Harghita at least was that while Basescu would never do anything to help Hungarians, at least he is “neutral” on the issue. Geoana and the PSD, on the other hand, are seen as definitely anti-Hungarian. I’d say therefore that Hungarian voters split three ways – those who didn’t vote in the second round because they could find nothing to vote for (that would be the majority), those that voted Basescu to keep out the PSD (the second most popular option), and those that voted Geoana because the UDMR told them too and they always do what they’re told by the UDMR (a small minority)
And honestly, I’d be surprised if there was a lot of Romanian nationalist fear in the anti-Geoana vote. If they’d been proposing a Hungarian, sure, but a German? I can’t see it, honestly.
I read the figures regarding the geographic vote split as being down to the fact that PSD organisation is huge and well-organised on the ground in the south and in Moldova, whereas in Transylvania it really isn’t – even in the villages.
After the first round when the geographic split was already obviously Transylvania & Bucharest for Basescu, the rest Geoana, there was also a stat that showed those with a university degree had split for Antonescu, those with a high school diploma for Basescu, and those without even a high school leaving certificate for Geoana. i’d love to see if there has been similar polls the second time around.
@Craig Turp:
You should multiply that period (13s) by 5, as there were 5 cabins inside every voting point (that comes up to somewhat over a minute for each person). You also should take into consideration that the embassies’ men let the people fill in the declaration as they were waiting on cue (they knew who the majority there was voting for and had interest on letting more people in), whereas the voting was halted several times at Gara de Nord.
Also, I suppose, the United States hasn’t gone through bloody revolution since the 1800s.
PSD has not yet proven any real wrongdoing (they will not) but they did raise an important point yesterday:
At Gara de Nord on Sunday, 702 people voted at the special polling station for those in transit. There were queues all day, but the time it takes to vote (including writing a declaration that you have not and will not vote elsewhere) means they could only process 702 people in the time allowed for voting (7am-9pm).
Yet at Romanian embassies abroad, there was some real ‘Stakhanovite’ voting: in Paris, more than 3500 people voted in the time allowed. That means the whole voting process for each person (getting in and out the polling booth, handing over documents, writing the decalaration etc) took just 13 seconds.
Not saying it made any real impact on the outcome, but it does need an explanation.
This is bizarre, though – in the United States, the vast majority of youth haven’t fallen for the ‘the left (actually, in the United States, the supposed ‘left’ is center-right, which tells you how fucked up the political system in the United States is) is commies!’, whereas for some odd reason most of the youth have fallen for it in Romania. Is it because the revolution occurred within the past 25 years?
It will be a deal wit PNL, or at least with a group of PNL MP’s who run over, toghether with some other defectors and UDMR and Minority MP’s.
And cut the crap, both Basescu and Geoana were bad choices. I would have voted in first round for Antonescu, but the guy is also not stable enough to lead the country and has not enough support (even in his own party). A right wing government is preferable above a PSD government with the Vanghelies, Nastases, and other Iliescus on the sideline. True what Parmalat said, Romanians deserve what they got.
anyway, I’m prepared for a good show of bad politic taste. Good entertainment!
@Parmalat: And on that bombshell!
What will be interesting now is how the PDL Taliban who said Vantu and Patriciu were evil will react if Basescu does a deal with the PNL…
Romanians – taken as a whole – are stupid.
History hasn’t been cruel to this country, it simply gave us what we deserve.
I like how the elections map looks and validates my view that Transylvania gave and ethnic vote to Basescu: http://andreileca78.wordpress.com/2009/12/08/harta-alegerilor-din-06-12-2009-turul-ii/
The most interesting is that Salaj and Hunedoara counties, the exceptions from that pattern are territories with historically absolute majority of ethnic Romanian population and therefore less paranoid that a German from their mist would become PM and remind them of the ‘good-old times’ of racial discrimination of Austo-Hungary.
Salaj county is fascinating in that regard as is a SDP drop in a NLP sea. It tallies with the counties of the Old Kingdom and is excellently true to its very special local history: the county has been governed for centuries by Moldavian princes as a fief given to a vassal by their medieval Hungarian overlords, it is practically a bit of the Old Kingdom in the middle of Transylvania (for those who don’t know- both Moldavia and Wallachia have been frontier provinces of the Hungarian kingdom been from their inception until the Mohacs disaster)
Salaj reminds me of another similar situation- in the UK when there was the vote for the Wales autonomy/ assemby: the Welsh speaking parts voted for it and English border ones against. There was an eccentric pro-English county in the area of ethnic Welsh parts- Pembrokeshire- which for those who know history is an area of old English colonisation immediately after the Norman conquest. Salaj county in Romania follows the same lines in these elections.
As for Hungarian majority population counties- with their very low turnout- it is clear that the local Romanians turned out to vote in favour of Basescu. They were paranoid that a Johannis will set a precedent for minority re-domination.
All of these show how ill prepared were the opposition and that they dont know their own country and its intricacies. The consultants hired with so much money perhaps had super paper diplomas from Harvard or Oxford, and were just showing off how beautiful and ‘intellgent’ they are. I do hope that they will be hired by multinationals for super-salaries, as is the habit around here
!
I don’t understand how people can vote for someone linked to the Securitate? I guess half of Romanians really are not too mad about Communism. If they were they would never support someone who was involved with it. You change things by protesting, not backing people from the Ceausescu era.
@Katharine: This election was indeed won by the candidate who plated the Red Scare card. Given the nonsense put about by his Taliban Tendency supporters you honestly would have thought that the Red Army was poised to invade the minute the PSD were elected. It is a bit sad that people still fall for this (especially the young).
@Craig: not even Iliescu got to be President for 15 years! And besides, before 1992 there was no Constitution, we can’t consider Iliescu’s first term as a real term.
This reminds me faintly of what goes on in the United States: part of the population is still convinced they live during the Red Scare.
From the NYT’s man in Bucharest: http://www.nytimes.com/2009/12/08/world/europe/08romania.html?ref=global-home
you all are very funny ,but all this poor people from romania will return to the old days of golden generatio ……ceausescu time ….they will be there statin from tomorrow
I did not vote for any one , I dont live there ,but they will have a difficult life starting from tomorrow . He stole all the votes that he could …. for me he look like Ceausescu
God bless you all romanians , but I should cry for you if this person is your president
I am amazed to see how the strong and widening regional differences between western leaning Transylvania and the backward Old Kingdom have played in favour of Basescu’s election.
Most of historic Transylvania, and Banat voted with Basescu. Many are flabbergasted by that fact, but I believe the explanation was the local jingoism against national minorities (read Hungarians and Germans) and the prospect of having a German PM from their midst in case Geoana would have won.
One has to dig a bit into the history of the province to realise the well concealed mistrust and mute hostility against the local Hungarians and Germans. It dates from mid 19th century when the Hungarian government implemented a policy of forced ethnic assimilation and outright racial discrimination against Romanians. The Germans also had a privileged position in the province since the medieval times, which was put on worst display during the Nazi times when many had a very arrogant behaviour toward their Romanian neighbours. Those unhappy times are so much ingrained into the local psyche that it comes into action at moments such as these elections.
In the basically ethnically homogeneous Old Kingdom (the Roma gypsies don’t matter as a still oppressed, completely disenfranchised minority), the situation is radically different. They don’t have much qualms against Transylvania Germans or even Hungarians, minorities which are seen in general as western and hard working. The economic backwardness, deep corruption and nepotism is what favoured Basescu. The Old Kingdom voters perceive the incumbent and his party as the best vehicle of fostering their little petty interests. A new president and government that promised a clean up, even cosmetically would have disrupted all the murky deals and other client-patron networks formed in this Byzantine society. Also Basecu and his entourage is associated with the wild boom of 2005-08, when stupid western investment funds’ money were sloshing around, and many are hopping for its repeat by a return of Basescu to power.
In the end the strong differences between Transylvania and rest or Romania played in Basescu’s favour; indeed a very peculiar congruence of widely dissimilar interests.
@Fraser: No, alas.
Did you have money on it?
I’m so enjoying the debate. Even yesterday I was willing to bet my salary on Basescu’s victory. I know very well that exit polls have a high margin of error (been part of one in my univ years) and i also suspected that the diaspora would try to influence the results (thank you friends in the States for proving me right! Heh!)
True, there will be a period of … let’s say not-so-nice-comments from either side. And I bet PNL won’t turn to Basescu after siding wt Geoana for the past 2 weeks, eh?
Maybe the elections are what we need. To get it over with and finally have a government for the country. Not that it cannot run itself as it seems.
Didn’t Iliescu get three terms? There is a (kind of) precedent…
They will also modify the Constitution to allow Basescu to run for a 3rd term.
I tell you this will end up in blood, after 1989 Romania will witness another bloodshed.
No, it will be much more simple: PDL buys everything – from mayors to senators and deputies and it becomes what the PSD used to be in 2003-2004. Nobody can stop this process.
Do they have money? Of course, they just won the elections, they have 150 billion $ to spare as this is the estimated budget of the country.
Much more simple Sir: buy everything out, money is the most powerful weapon in the world.
Expect strikes by PSD-led unions for starters. My guess is the PSD will try and make the country ungovernable.
Wow! I will indeed want to stay on in Bucharest now to see how the chaos plays out over the next few years.
{ 2 trackbacks }