Romania’s Presidential Election 2009 (Round 2)

We try and keep well away from politics here at Bucharest Life. (That’s a lie! – Ed)

Well, almost.

But given the fact that we live in Bucharest, capital of Romania, and that come Sunday Romanians will be voting in the second and (probably) final round of the country’s presidential election, we could not help ourselves.

(You can remind yourself of what happened in round one here).

It has not been he most glorious of campaigns. Issues, and there are many that could have been discussed, from desperate rural poverty to the urgent need to make tens of thousands of civil servants redundant, have by and large been ignored. Name-calling has replaced political debate.

One label has been particularly prevalent: Communist. Current president Traian Basescu’s sole argument for reelection appears to be ‘the other bloke’s a communist.’ Challenger Mircea Geoana has likewise stuck to the line that Basescu is a dangerous dictator in the making with both communist and fascist traits.

Alas for both men, Basescu (while clearly a populist authoritarian who for the past 12 months has been de facto president and prime minister) is no fascist. He is no dictator (not yet, anyway). Geoana, a man who often appears to despair of those in his party in the same way Tony Blair found John Prescott and Tony Benn an embarrassment (the feeling was mutual) is no communist. (Basescu, it should be noted, was a paid-up member of the Romanian Communist Party and did very, very well under the communist system. So did Geoana, the son of an army general).

Economically, both men are offering similar deals: the low, flat rate of income and corporate tax will stay, though Geoana has gone further and said that the target must be to reduce taxes as soon as possible. He has also said that the compulsory tax applied to small companies will also go. Basescu has made no such promise.

The reason? He can’t. And here is Basescu’s biggest problem.

Geoana is a complete package: he comes with a ready made government and a majority in parliament (how long it will last is a question for another day). Basescu offers little more than chaos. A Basescu victory would see more failed attempts to force a PD-L man on the country as prime minister. In fact any such candidate would be a stooge: Basescu would remain de facto prime minister, as he has been for the past year. Anyone who thinks Little Emil Boc takes any decisions without being told by Basescu whether he can or not is fooling themselves.

After further months of chaos we would then probably face parliamentary elections. Not what the doctor ordered at all. Even then (assuming that the three main parties would poll more or less as their presidential candidates did, and end up with much the same number of seats as now) the status quo would remain.

So with heavy heart we have to back Geoana (not that it matters: we can’t vote, although Mrs. Bucharest Life can). Romania needs a government, it needs stability and it needs an end to five years of scandal and of being ruled by presidential press conference.

But will it happen?

After last night’s televised debate between the two candidates (clearly won on points by Basescu, but without the knock-out blow he probably needed) Geoana remains favourite; but much will depend on the weather, and on the turnout. It is still all to play for.

So we predict the following: Turn out over 53 per cent: Basescu squeaks it. Anything less, Geoana wins.

We also predict that if he does lose, Basescu (or more likely, his supporters) will not go quietly. Expect all sorts of shenanigans from his increasingly militant Taliban Tendency in the city’s central squares in the immediate aftermath of the first results being made public.

Last Monday’s little protests were merely the dress rehearsal.