With an eye on December’s presidential election as much as this Sunday’s European vote, the Romanian Liberal Party (PNL) on Monday presented the most coherent yet radical political agenda in recent Romanian political history. Alas, on a day when the disappearance over the Atlantic of an Air France flight from Brazil to Paris made all the headlines, the PNL’s proposals met with short shrift.
By the way, regular readers will be pleased to know that though there was a Romanian on board the Air France flight, Adi Mutu’s travel plans were not thought to have been affected.
What the PNL’s leader and presidential candidate Crin Antonescu proposed yesterday was simple: a major rolling back of the Romanian state, 10 per cent income tax, and 15 per cent VAT. Though vague on which parts of the state and exactly how many jobs would be axed (and to afford tax cuts like that much of it would have to go) the principle behind the idea is sound. It also creates clear blue water between the PNL, which must now, once and for all, be recognised as Romania’s pro-market party, and the current government, made up of the centre-left Social Democrats (PSD) and centre-right Liberal Democrats (PDL).
Though irrelevant in the battle for votes this Sunday (the PNL will trail in third place, with around 20 per cent of the vote, behind the PSD and PDL, each on 30 per cent or so in the latest polls), Antonescu is the first of the main presidential candidates to launch his campaign. It remains to be seen who his opponents will be. Mircea Geoana, leader of the PSD is a certain runner, but the incumbent President, Traian Basescu, is thought to be wavering: he may fancy a Putin/Medvedev-esque swap with Prime Minister, Little Emil Boc. Who does eventually run on behalf of the PDL is important. For though Antonescu has a chance of defeating either Basescu or Geoana one-to-one, he suffers from what might be termed ‘the 30 per cent problem’: in the first round of presidential voting, Geoana is all but guaranteed the support of around 30 per cent of the electorate (the PSD’s core voters). Basescu likewise will get around 30 per cent if he runs. Such a result would freeze Antonescu out.
If, however, Basescu puts his monkey up for election, then Antonescu has a real chance of making the second round. For it is difficult to see how too many people would vote for Boc, a man whose job consists of little more than acting as Basescu’s bagman in government. He is, alas, an increasing embarrassment to Basescu and to Romania. It is easy to see why Basescu wants to cut out the middle-man and take direct control.
Yet handing the presidency to Antonescu is not a price we think he will be prepared to pay. Expect him to end up running. That will leave Antonescu with the task of somehow making the second round. How he goes about that is anybody’s guess.
He will not have won too many PSD supporters over on Monday, but he made a good start in wooing the undecided.
First though, the European elections. A poor result for any of the big three parties and their leaders can forget about the presidency…
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Very interesting. Thanks!
And PDL is not centre-right, PDL is the Nazi Party.
PSD will be highly affected this Sunday because their core voters (mostly the "special pensions and salaries" cathegory) were hit hard by Emil Boc and PSD didn't say a word!
I expect them to be on 26%, with the difference going straight to PNL.
Otherwise noted, today a bunch of PSD members formed a small gallery of about 30 people and went around the neighborhood dressed in red and with red PSD flags and allowing me the pleasure to swear Basescu from my balcony for about 2 minutes with all the words that came through my mind in those seconds [and Romanian is a dirty language].
I hope all the neighborhood heard the swears.