Dear Bucharest Life

Ron Ionescu
Iasi

Romanian president Traian Basescu yesterday named the head of Romania’s foreign intelligence service Mihai Razvan Ungureanu as prime minister. Ungureanu now has to try and form a government and have it approved by parliament. The full story is here.

Definitely an upgrade from Emil Boc and a rather nice man (we’ve met him: he was doing research at the same university where we studied Romanian, SSEES) there are, however, a number of issues which immediately make his appointment questionable.

1. Nobody has ever elected him to anything

Ungureanu was not elected as prime minister. In fact, he was not even elected to parliament. Like Boc he has been appointed prime minister without ever undergoing the scrutiny of the electorate. There is nothing unconstitutional in this, but surely there should be? Should a prime minister not be chosen from amongst elected politicians only?

2. He is very much Basescu’s man

Ungureanu was foreign minister in the Tariceanu government from 2004-2007. If you remember, by the time Romania joined the EU on January 1st, 2007, Tariceanu and Basescu had already fallen out, so much so that two huge EU parties were organised that New Year’s Eve in Bucharest: one by the government, one by the presidency. Despite being a member of the government, Ungureanu went to Basescu’s party. He left the government shortly afterwards.

3. Before 1989 he was a member of the Central Committee of Romania’s Communist Youth Organisation, the UTC

Had Romania ever passed a law forbidding those who held positions of authority before 1989 from taking office in democratic Romania, Ungureanu would be one of those declared ineligible. (To his credit, however, it should be said that he has in the past recognised this anomaly himself).

4. He was until yesterday the boss of Romania’s intelligence services

Just imagine if Vladimir Putin made the head of the KGB his prime minister. Go on, just think about the reaction. Spot the problem?

Of course, we have no idea if Basescu actually wants Ungureanu to be prime minister, or if he is a stalking horse whose government is never meant to actually take office. Second guessing Basescu is becoming increasingly difficult. We also think that it is not impossible for Ungureanu to become a decent prime minister. He will only achieve this, however, if he is his own man.

The first test will be naming his cabinet. If you see Elena Udrea’s name on the list of proposed ministers then you will know who is still personally running the country.

So Romanian president Traian Basescu this morning gave prime minister Emil Boc his marching orders (officially Boc resigned, but we are not sure if anyone is buying the resignation story).

Justice Minister Catalin Predoiu has been appointed as interim prime minister.

What happens next in anybody’s guess. Here is ours.

We think that there is no chance of a new government being approved by parliament. There is now no guarantee that the UDMR will vote with the PDL, and besides, the PDL/UDMR now only have a wafer thin majority in the Senate. Elections are therefore inevitable, possibly as early as April.

One other possibility worth mentioning is the opposition (and the UDMR) calling Basescu’s bluff, and allowing a PDL prime minister to lead a minority PDL government until scheduled elections in November. Assuming the economy will get no better the PDL would then be all but wiped out come election time.

A little Machiavellian perhaps, but that’s probably what we would do.

PS We hear that Basescu will be naming his first (probably stalking horse) candidate for prime minister this evening, after ‘consulting’ all of the political parties.

Thanks to Jackie Kirkham @Flickr for the photo

Remember the census carried out by the INS last year?

Well, preliminary results were released yesterday. You can browse them at your leisure here.

Edited highlights:

The population of Romania has fallen by more than two and a half million since the 2002 census. The current population of Romania is now just 19,042,936. It has not been this low since 1966. (Romania’s population peaked in 1992, at 22,810.035).

The population of Bucharest has fallen to 1,677,985, down from a peak of over two million in 1992.

Romania remains a mainly urban country, but only just: 48 per cent of the population still live in the countryside.

The government has been quick to say that something must have gone wrong with the census. The ruling PD-L is scrambling to ensure that party leader Traian Basescu, president since 2004, does not go down in history as the president who oversaw The Great Exodus.

These are indeed preliminary results, but they look reasonable enough (the biggest question mark is probably over the Bucharest number), and given the huge numbers of Romanians who have emigrated (to Spain and Italy especially) we do not expect any huge changes in the numbers when the final figures are released.

Looks like us immigrants could soon be the only people left.

We assume that even the most ill-informed of visitors to Bucharest Life is aware of the fact that former Romanian prime minister Adrian Nastase was sentenced to two years in prison on Monday for corruption. Nastase remains a free man for the time being, pending an appeal. Here is the Reuters report on the matter.

Anyway, The Economist’s man in these parts posted this on the Eastern Approaches blog last night. It is a very good assessment of the case.

We particularly like the line:

The president has a reputation for seeking to bring corruption charges against his opponents.

As someone suggested to us this morning, the post must have taken ‘some serious lawyering.’

Oh dear