The leu hit 4.20 to the euro today, a historic low.
Anyone betting against 4.50 by the end of next week?
How Low Can You Go?
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Yea but I’m still a pig
Blast, I thought you knew Romania better than that…
Well, I don;t know who Gordon is, but I was only wrong because the NBR was not playing on a fair wicket. The leu would have hit 4.50 if the NBR had not bought vast amounts of Lei on Weds, Thurs and Fri last week.
I’m a pig
RON 4.2655 = EUR 1 (NBR rate)
RON 4.2848 = EUR 1 (www.oanda.com, via USD)
So it seems you’ve lost, Gordon… oh dear…
Yea, strenght into weekly open actually supports my theory and we could see failure into weekly close. Furthermore all JPY-crosses gapped lower 24 hours ago in the weekly opening and the gap hasn’t been closed yet (gaps occur mostly against the trend). JPY-crosses give the entire market sentiment and the relation between JPY-crosses (carry trades) and EUR/RON is that when JPY-crosses (EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY, AUD/JPY etc…) go lower then EUR/RON goes higher.
At this point all JPY crosses are nearing some very important support levels (most of all GBP/JPY testing 132.00 area as I write which hasn’t been tested since 1995 so a significant bounce from this level is expected) and further liquidation is quite unlikely unless really bad news arrives from the economic fronts. And since Russia is expected to open the pipes rather sooner than later, a bounce from these levels is of a significant probability. We’ll see, unfortunately a professional EUR/RON chart is quite hard to find so I can’t make a thorough analysis.
But what do you think about employment in multi-national companies coming to Romania? Should it be handled exclusively by foreign staff?
Already at 4.27… And it’s only Monday…
No, 4.5 by next week is too far and too fast…
( ).
First of all I need another day above 4.2 to be certain that the Euro can sustain itself above. After that we’ll see, maybe 4.3 is in play by next week. My bet is that 4.5 will be played (even 4.6) but the volatility will be settling down (the volatility is already settling down in major currencies and today I had to raise my volume because I could only see 140 points in USD/CHF after a month ago when I could see 400 points moves
The BNR kept interest rates at 10.25% which is obviously not sustainable under the current state of the economy unless big money comes. So I’m waiting to see what money they intend to attract (maybe a loan from the IMF or structural European funds). I’ll also be looking over the trade deficit in the next few months because – if there is any point in keeping such a high interest rate – that point is represented by the reduction of the trade deficit. In my opinion the policy of BNR is a failure in proportion of 75% but we’ll see… after today’s deeply disappointing unemployment figures in the U.S. nobody knows what’s good and what’s bad anymore.
And it all came from the war in Irak and the worse affected were the countries that had the most involvement in the war (U.S. and U.K.).
If I were in charge of BNR the situation would have been better. You know what’s the problem in Romania? (another problem, obviously) The problem is that foreign managers who come here actually rely on Romanian staff to recruit and hire people! Romanian staff is mostly stupid and knows nothing about what they should do (yes, they’re exploited and overworked but that’s another discussion) and obviously they can only understand people that are like them. They won’t recruit a professional because they can’t understand what he says, but they’ll recruit a whore anytime.
Let me know your opinion about this please.